Sovereign Risk Analysis Solutions
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Get answers to Sovereign Risk Analysis
Course Modules
MIS Framework for Sovereign Ratings
- Case study: Rating Nigeria and South Africa
- Fiscal strength
- Institutional and governance strength
- Susceptibility to event risk
- Mapping to the rating
- Economic strength
Default and Restructuring
- COVID-19: Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) and common framework for debt treatment
- Defining default
- Empirical evidence of loss given default in sovereign default
- Examples: Barbados (2018), Ecuador (2020)
- Example: Zambia (2020)
- Market re-access
- Consent solicitation
- Investor reactions • Holdouts • Impact of collective action clause
- Restructuring and bond exchanges
Country Ceilings and Applications
- Inferring country risk from the LCC-FCC gap
- Local and foreign currency ceilings
Sovereign Risk Outlook
- Sovereign risk drivers
- Pandemic impacts
National Accounts and Statistics
- Accounting and misreporting
- GDP and GDP growth
- External balances: Current and capital accounts
- GDP sectoral balance
- Primary balance and government deficit/surplus
External Support
- Extended, standby and rapid credit facilities
- Heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) initiative
- European Stability Mechanism
- IMF support for low-income countries
- International Monetary Fund
- Catastrophe containment and relief
- Example: Ghana (2015, 2020)
Causes of Sovereign Default
- Early warning signals
- Case studies: Lebanon (2020) and Suriname (2020)
- Local versus foreign currency debt
- Standard causes of sovereign default
- Behaviour of financial metrics around default